Azerbaijan is strengthening its transport diplomacy and investing in sustainable logistics infrastructure in the South Caucasus. Baku’s strategic approach aims to combine two intercontinental transport projects, the East-West and the North-South corridors, which will strengthen the country’s status as a Eurasian transit hub. Under these conditions, Uzbekistan has the opportunity to develop trade and transport links with the European Union bypassing Russia, while involving Azerbaijan in regional connectivity projects between Central and South Asia.

Azerbaijan plays a pivotal role in the operation of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) section of the Middle Corridor, linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye  via the Caspian Sea and integrating these regions into the global supply chain along the East-West axis. This route is also an integral component of the European program for international cooperation in organizing the Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA) that was initiated in 1993.

The growing importance of trans-Caspian transport for trade between China, Central Asia and the European Union has spurred interest in developing the Middle Corridor’s infrastructure. In the long term, this will allow the corridor, despite its multimodality, to compete with northern routes to Europe through Kazakhstan and Russia.

According to an analytical report prepared by experts from Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan, the Middle Corridor’s carrying capacity could be increased to 25 million tons per year, equaling the Northern Corridor’s projected potential. Achieving this result will depend largely on effectively solving the route’s infrastructural, administrative, legal, and technical problems. Azerbaijan is doing a lot of independent work in this regard. In particular:

1. Large-scale extension of the Baku International Sea Trade Port in Alyat, which is a key link of transport routes between Central Asia and the Caucasus, is underway. It is planned to increase the port’s capacity from 15 to 25 million tons per year. Azerbaijan also intends to increase its merchant fleet in the Caspian Sea to over 60 units by constructing 10 cargo ships.
2. The Georgian section of the 826-kilometer Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway has been modernized, increasing its capacity by fivefold to five million tons per year. Work on developing station tracks, electrification, and integrating the transport line with Azerbaijan’s port infrastructure is actively ongoing. 

The Horadiz-Agbend railway leading to the border with Armenia is nearing completion and will become part of the Azerbaijani section of the Zangezur Corridor, necessary for a direct connection between Azerbaijan and Türkiye  through the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR). The second track of the previously existing railway with access to Türkiye is being laid in Nakhchivan. Its continuation will be the electrified double-track Igdir-Kars line. Only the 43-kilometer Armenian section of the Zangezur Corridor remains to be completed, the construction of which is complicated by the still unresolved relations between Baku and Yerevan. Once fully completed, the project will reduce the distance between Türkiye and Azerbaijan by 343 km, significantly saving time and costs for the transport of goods and expanding opportunities for cargo transport along the Middle Corridor.

Baku is promoting an alternative route along the Aras River on the Azerbaijan–Iran border that would achieve a similar effect. Initially, the Aras Corridor would be used for road transport, with the prospect of constructing a duplicate railway. 

The infrastructural transformation of Azerbaijan’s transport network, funded by the country itself, is helping to eliminate bottlenecks long the Middle Corridor and to strengthen its competitive advantages.

The extension of trans-Caspian routes, in addition to transit benefits, will provide Central Asia with a number of geopolitical and geo-economic advantages.

First. The region has a unique opportunity to overcome its transport isolation and transform into a Eurasian transit hub. This would strengthen its international status, which is crucial for establishing equal relations with influential actors of world politics.

Second. Expanding the potential of the Middle Corridor aligns with the national transportation strategies of Central Asian countries that aim to diversify foreign trade flows. Developing freight transport in the west enables the region to reduce its dependence on northern routes and open up new export markets.

Third. The transport landscape of Central Asia is being radically transformed due to the launch of new interregional trade routes, providing a solid foundation for strengthening intraregional connectivity and reducing transport costs. 

Fourth. Trans-Caspian transport facilitates the expansion of trade and economic and investment cooperation with the European Union, with the countries of the South Caucasus, and with Türkiye, which gives an additional impetus to Central Asia’s development.

In 2024, 4.5 million tons of cargo were transported via the Middle Corridor (through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and various Caspian Sea ports), which is 62% more than a year earlier. The volume of Uzbek transport during this period reached 1 million tons.

The World Bank predicts an increase in cargo traffic along the Middle Corridor to 11 million tons by 2030. The share of transcontinental trade in the total volume is expected to be only 40%, including 1.3 million tons of potential transit cargo from Uzbekistan to Europe. At the same time, Uzbekistan will also need to use the transit services of neighboring Kazakhstan. 

Experts emphasize that, following the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and its extension to the Turkmenbashi port on the Caspian Sea, there will not be a significant reorientation of cargo traffic from China to Europe towards the southern route of the Middle Corridor. Therefore, it can be concluded that improving the Middle Corridor will provide an opportunity to increase the export of transport services only to two Central Asian states: Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The other republics will demand this route more in the context of developing bilateral trade with Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye .

For Uzbekistan, it is much more efficient to establish transport links with Europe via Iran, since this will enable the country to fully realize its transit potential. Work is underway to establish the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Türkiye-EU railway corridor.

The launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will form a new configuration of this route that will reduce the trade route between East Asia and Europe by 900 km, and cut cargo delivery times by 7–8 days.  Consequently, the Southern Corridor will become the shortest monomodal route connecting two of the world’s major economic centers, China and Europe. It could also branch off to the Middle East (the Persian Gulf countries) all the way to the African continent. And the Iranian Aras Corridor project could provide Central Asian countries with an alternative exit to the South Caucasus bypassing the Caspian Sea.

As the Trans-Afghan Railway project to Pakistan along the Termez-Naibabad-Logar-Kharlachi route is being implemented, it seems advisable to connect it with the Middle Corridor. This will establish an overland connection between the Indian subcontinent, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe. The new multimodal India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-Caspian Sea ports-Azerbaijan-Georgia-EU corridor will increase transit traffic through Central Asia by redistributing the potential flow of cargo from Afghanistan to Europe in favor of Uzbekistan. The project could also be considered an alternative to the Lapis Lazuli Corridor involving Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye.

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AUTHOR’S BIO: Nargiza Umarova is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS), University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED), and an analyst at the non-governmental research institution, “Knowledge Caravan,” in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.  Her research  activities are focused on studying the developments of Central Asian trends in regional integration and the influence of great powers on this process. Also she explores the current policy of Uzbekistan on the creation and development of international transport corridors.  

You can  contact her at [email protected].