January 22, London - The Caspian Region has undergone historic shifts over the past year, including the expansion of intra-regional cooperation through Azerbaijan’s formal integration into the Central Asian Five (C5) to create the C6, renewed momentum toward a U.S.-brokered peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the announcement of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Alongside growing energy and connectivity initiatives expanding the Middle Corridor and increased global engagement by Caspian countries, these developments have accelerated progress toward regional stability, sovereignty, and connectivity.

These themes were at the heart of a webinar hosted by the Caspian Policy Center, “The Caspian at a Crossroads: What to Watch in 2026.” The online discussion examined political, security, and economic trends shaping Central Asia and the South Caucasus and assessed how Caspian states and their partners can sustain and build on recent momentum. Panelists also explored the growing roles of the European Union (EU) and Türkiye in the region and identified opportunities for deeper cooperation in the years ahead.

David Moran, CPC’s UK Adviser and former UK Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic, opened the discussion by highlighting several major climate-focused summits that will be held in the region in the coming year. These include the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana in April, the Global Climate Summit in Antalya, and the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP17) in Yerevan.

Moderating the discussion, James Sharp, CPC Board Member and former UK Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, underscored the scale of recent changes in the region. “You have many significant things that happened regionally last year. The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal, and the Central Asian five (C5) became central Asian six (C6) with the addition of Azerbaijan. There has been progress on the Middle Corridor, and also a lot of interest in critical minerals in the region,” Sharp said. 

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, Managing Director of the European Neighbourhood Council, highlighted the EU’s increasing investment in the Caspian region since the start of the war in Ukraine. “Since the war in Ukraine, the EU has invested heavily in Central Asia. They have started with connectivity and infrastructure, because if you don't develop the connectivity agenda, meaning if you don't invest in logistics and infrastructure, then it's impossible to have trade or mining and so forth.” He highlighted that recent EU-backed investor forums have mobilized about €20 billion, exceeding earlier investment estimates for the region.

Vesterbye also pointed to the transformative impact of trading agreements, called Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreements (EPCAs), that Caspian countries have signed with the EU, highlighting the example of Kazakhstan. “With Kazakhstan, the ECPA essentially opened up trade and preferential treatment. Back in 2015 Kazakhstan’s number one trading partners were Russia and China. Today, because of the EPCA, the EU has become Kazakhstan's number one trading partner,” Vesterbye said. He added that Uzbekistan, which has also signed an EPCA with Brussels, could see a similar trajectory in its trading relationship with the EU within five to ten years. Another trend Vesterbye pointed to is the EU’s increasing investment in Caspian natural gas. “Even though the EU is vocalizing a lot on renewables, gas is still denominated as a transition fossil source, so that is something which could happen.”  

Benjamin Godwin, Partner at PRISM Strategic Intelligence, focused his remarks on energy security, transit routes, and shifting geopolitical competition in the Caspian region. Godwin identified the United States’ increasing presence and interest in the region – particularly in the areas of energy, transit routes, and critical minerals – as a defining trend. “One of the key things that is different about 2026 compared with 2025 has been the return of the United States to the Central Asian region,” Godwin said, noting President Trump’s interest in the region’s critical minerals and the potential of a Trans-Caspian Pipeline, as well as his personal engagement with regional leaders. However, Godwin noted that while there is goodwill from both the United States and regional leaders, “these energy and critical mineral opportunities are long-term opportunities and are very difficult to get up and running.” 

Godwin also cautioned that geopolitical competition is intensifying, particularly as China's footprint in the region has grown rapidly over recent years. “Chinese competition in the region is very fierce, so the United States is going to have to work very hard to translate its rhetoric into something tangible on the ground.” Turning to security and supply-chain risks, Godwin noted that, while Kazakhstan offers more than 40% of the world’s supply of uranium, future availability is uncertain due to transit constraints, rising Chinese demand, and limited resource regeneration.

CPC Advisory Board Member Bruce Pannier provided an assessment of regional security dynamics, stressing cautious optimism. “I do not see any clear and present danger in terms of security or defence in Central Asia in 2026,” Pannier said, pointing to positive trends such as border agreements in the Fergana Valley among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and growing regional security cooperation. He added that he does not see the Taliban in Afghanistan as a major threat to regional stability, especially since all Central Asian governments have established a dialogue with the Taliban government. However, Pannier highlighted the continued importance of managing security risks posed by non-state actors.

Pannier also highlighted the growing link between regional security and connectivity as a result of the Middle Corridor. “The Middle Corridor has become the main driver of regional cooperation and security coordination,” he said, pointing to the growing number of joint military exercises among Caspian and Central Asian states. These exercises, Pannier noted, allow Caspian states to attract investment by signalling their ability secure critical infrastructure and trade routes without reliance on external powers.

Daria Isachenko, Visiting Researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, examined Türkiye’s evolving role in the Caspian region. She noted that Türkiye views itself as multi-regional actor and is increasingly dependent on its’ partner and ally Azerbaijan for engagement with the Caspian region, given Ankara’s priorities elsewhere. “Türkiye does see itself as a Caspian country, and it also sees itself as a multi-regional actor. But being a multi-regional actor requires also some multitasking, which is why, when it comes to the Eurasian vector in Turkish foreign policy, there is a big role for Azerbaijan, particularly as Türkiye manages multiple security priorities elsewhere, especially in the Middle East. Azerbaijan is also indispensable for Türkiye because Ankara itself does not have the same level of access to the Caspian region,” she said. Isachenko also noted that Ankara’s main priorities in the Caspian region surround energy and connectivity, particularly with Turkic states. “Ankara believes the Caspian Sea should unite, not separate, the Turkic world,” she said.