Uzbekistan Pursues Economic Partnership with Afghanistan
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Author: None None
08/27/2019
Uzbekistan has recently intensified their efforts to increase economic cooperation with Afghanistan. The Mirziyoyev government has sponsored numerous and diverse initiatives since its inception in 2016. These initiatives include deals between the states and state-owned enterprises in various economic sectors, events to facilitate connection between policymakers and business people as well as programs to liberalize trade by changing regulatory structures. The Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan has effectively been rebooted after a long period of inactivity. Various media outlets have claimed that the Commission’s session earlier this year was the first meeting of the organization, but this assertion is erroneous. According to a peer-reviewed journal article by Dr. Shaislam Akmalov, the “Uzbek-Afghan Intergovernmental Commission for trade and economic cooperation” had its first meeting in June 2007. The Commission then largely disappears from media reports about the region, though Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did announce the formation of a Joint Commission for Cooperation in Commerce, Transportation and Energy which may be the same as the Intergovernmental Commission. The latter reentered the news stream on July 17, 2019 with a well-publicized event in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent. The conference, which touched on almost every aspect of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan’s economic relationship, also saw the release of a long list of prospective joint projects for the two countries. This list included several projects in the manufacturing sector. One proposal suggested that UzAuto open an automobile plant in Afghanistan. In this scheme, the factory would conduct final assembly on cars shipped to Afghanistan in a ‘semi-knocked down’ state meant to facilitate transportation. Most of the manufacturing value add for these vehicles would occur outside Afghanistan since most of the assembly process would be complete prior to importation, but this plan could help supply the local vehicle market while winning market share for UzAuto. Another potential project would see Uzbekistan collaborate in the creation of a textile factory in Mazar-e-Sharif, a city in Northern Afghanistan near the Uzbek border. This proposal comes on the heels of an announcement in April 2019 that the Uzbek Textiles Association had signed a memorandum with the Afghan Association of State Enterprises and Corporations on providing support and training to Afghan textile workers. These initiatives can help Afghanistan to revive its textile industry and provide a new export market for Uzbek cotton, especially in Mazar-e-Sharif with its rail connection to Uzbekistan. Finally, the aforementioned project list includes a proposal to create three vegetable oil processing plants, though details are rather sparse. During the July 17th conference, representatives from Tashkent and Kabul signed an agreement on a high-voltage electricity transmission line from Surkhan in Uzbekistan to Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan. The two countries had earlier signed an agreement on the project in late 2017 and Uzbekenergo had started construction on the line in March of 2018. Nonetheless, negotiations on contract specifics continued when Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah met with Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov on July 1, 2019. Shortly before that, on June 28, a representatives of Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry announced that Afghanistan and Uzbekistan were preparing to sign a 10-year take-or-pay electricity contract for power transmitted via the Surkhan to Pul-e-Khumri line. However, it is unclear whether the terms of the agreement have been settled, given the ongoing negotiations between the two parties. The electricity trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, already a big business, will experience significant growth in the future. Kabul is highly dependent on cross-border electricity trade to meet domestic demand, importing 79 percent of the electricity it used in 2015-2016.1 Uzbekistan is the largest single supplier of electricity, providing 1,284 gigawatt hours (GWh) of the total 4,773 GWh consumed in this year, or around 27 percent of Afghan demand. Conversely, electricity is Uzbekistan’s largest export to Afghanistan. These exports, which rose 30-fold between 2002 and 2018, will only grow in importance after the Surkhan to Pul-e-Khumri transmission line is completed since the project has the potential to increase Uzbek electricity volumes to Afghanistan by 70 percent. Increased electricity trade is a positive development with benefits for both partners: Uzbekistan can further develop its exports, while Afghanistan gains additional supplies of electricity to meet rapidly growing domestic demand despite the difficulties of developing local power generation capacity. Finally, Tashkent and Kabul have shown some movement towards liberalizing their bilateral trade regime. Last May, government representatives opened the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Border Trade Zone at the Termez Cargo Center in Southern Uzbekistan. While this zone is not a free trade zone, it does offer a ‘single window’ for government services to streamline the regulatory process and allow Afghan businesspeople to get necessary documents more quickly. The Cargo Center also hosts a conference center for events, such as the Uzbek-Afghan Business Forum that coincided with the opening of the Trade Zone, and the nearby city of Termez hosts a training center for Afghan workers. Nonetheless, Uzbek Aide to the Prime Minister Nodir Otozhanov adjured the Afghans to utilize the Termez Cargo facilities more actively when he spoke at the July 17 conference. This suggests that Afghan use of the Trade Zone and surrounding infrastructure is not as great as the Uzbeks had hoped. Additionally, Tashkent and Kabul have discussed the creation of a free trade agreement. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Trade told reporters in July 2018 that they were drafting an agreement that would remove Uzbek customs duties from Afghan goods, among other measures to facilitate trade. A meeting between the Ministry of Foreign Trade and an Afghan trade delegation on July 17, 2018 confirmed that a trade liberalization agreement was in progress. However, reference to this agreement has subsequently disappeared from bilateral meetings, suggesting that the initiative has been sidelined. Nonetheless, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have taken more recent measures to promote trade, including the creation of a working group to examine transit costs and bottlenecks in the cross-border movement of goods. Uzbek policymakers should also consider revamping the Termez Border Trade Zone by turning it into a full-fledged free trade zone. This step would increase its utilization by Afghan entrepreneurs and increase the level of bilateral trade, both of which have been identified by Tashkent as important initiatives.